Quite a bit of wide ranges between Vegas odds and my predictions again this week.  Last time that happened, Vegas was much closer to the results than I was -- we'll see if that holds true again.

 

Game of the week:  #4 Jacksonville vs. #2 Indianapolis.  This game has the makings of a classic.  Both are very good this year, and the home field gives the Jaguars a noticeable advantage.  This is probably the best Monday night game of the season, and not to be missed.

 

Game of the weak:  #26 Cincinnati vs. #30 NY Jets.  This is not what either team envisioned a mere couple years ago.  Both seemed to be on the rebound with bright new head coaches and renewed vigor by the fans.  Fast forward to today, and the programs are headed in the wrong direction and the coaching staffs are feeling the heat.  This is a must-win for both teams at this point in the season. 

 

One notable game:  Miami vs. New England.  There is an unwritten rule in Vegas that you never make a visiting NFL team a favorite of 10 points or more, as the visiting team rarely covers.  This "rule" is not just broken, but smashed this week by making the Pats a 16.5 point favorite.  Despite this spread, my system believes the margin will be even wider, and it's not biased by superstition (or history, for that matter).  Guess we'll find out Sunday afternoon.

 

Finally some movement at the top, as New England overtakes Indy following their woodshed beating of the Cowboys on Sunday.  In other news, Jacksonville is making big strides towards being cannon fodder in the playoffs for either the Pats or the Colts, and Tampa Bay has quietly snuck into contention following their win over a good Tennessee squad.

 

Last, and least, Miami has once again regained the bottom spot, falling to mediocre Cleveland on Sunday.  While it's hard to predict the games this season, at least it's not hard figuring out who the bad teams are -- just a game of musical chairs for the Dolphins, Rams, Jets, 49'ers, and Raiders this season.