The Final Four teams are set, and for the first time in history, all four #1 seeds make it to face one another.  Not only are they the best 4 teams in the nation, but they're very, very evenly matched.  These last three games should be outstanding.  Kudos to the tournament committee for getting the teams correct and providing a thrilling finish to the season.  (Ahem -- are you BCS guys listening?)

 

Data courtesy of Ken Pomeroy.

 

Pretty good week in tournament play.  Not too many upsets, but how about Davidson, Villanova, Siena, San Diego, and Western Kentucky?  Duke's and Georgetown's early exits were a bit unexpected, and the ratings show it.

 

Anyway, UCLA moves into the #1 spot over Memphis, and with a seemingly light bracket left, they're in good shape to make it to San Antonio.

 

BTW, for what it's worth (probably very little), I picked Texas to win the whole enchilada.  I really like the home court advantage they're going to get if they keep winning -- reminds me of Michigan State in 2000.

 

Data courtesy of Ken Pomeroy.

 

It's tournament week!  Woo hoo!  The selection committee got the #1 seeds correct, although my system still thinks that Memphis is #1 overall.  May point to a win-loss bias that I'll have to look at in the off-season, but things are still pretty well solidified now.

 

Many of you may want to use the ratings as a basis point for doing your brackets.  I don't publish predictions on basketball games, as I've not yet figured out the algorithms for doing so, and the chaos factor is a little higher in basketball than it is in football (the 2007 college football season notwithstanding...ahem...).  So basically, use the system like you would Sagarin's system -- take the difference of the two teams by ratings, but divide that difference by about 10 to get a moderately accurate spread.  Add roughly three points if one team is playing at home, or close enough to it to have an advantage from the crowd.

 

For example, UCLA vs. Miss Valley State in Anaheim is nearly a home game for the Bruins, so the difference between UCLA (300.33) and MVSU (43.57) is 256.76, divided by 10 is 25.68, and add 3 points for the home court advantage, and therefore UCLA would be favored by 28.68 points, which is probably about right.  Have fun!

 

Data courtesy of Ken Pomeroy.

 

The regular season has concluded, some teams are already in the big dance, and some will find out if they've made the cut on Sunday evening.  For now, Memphis ends the regular season as the #1 team, followed closely by an almost equally superlative North Carolina squad.  At the complete other end of the spectrum is the absolutely futile attempt of a team that was the NJ Institute of Technology, who earn the nod as the only team this season to finish with a perfect record -- 0-29.

 

On to the conference tournaments and then March Madness!

 

Data courtesy of Ken Pomeroy.