I foresee Ohio State, Kansas, Florida, and Georgetown making the Final Four.  North Carolina is exceptional as well, but I just think Georgetown is really clicking right now and there's even a decent chance that the Hoyas could even go the distance this year.  The easiest road to the Final Four probably belongs to Ohio State, while the toughest path is almost certainly Florida's treacherous journey in the Midwest region.  More on that below, as well as a championship prediction.

Who's in, who's out

I'm really surprised by some of the teams that made it in as at-large teams and some of those that didn't.  In the latter group that had their bubbles burst tonight were Air Force, Akron, Missouri State, and last but not least Syracuse.  I'm sure strength of schedule played a part in Air Force's and Akron's omissions and the mid-major stigma probably was Missouri State's undoing, but none of those could have been a factor with Syracuse who was rated #41 in my system and had a fairly decent strength of schedule.

I'm also a bit surprised by who made the field.  In particular, Stanford, Texas Tech, Virginia, and Vanderbilt stand out as teams that somehow, inexplicably made the cut.  Stanford in particular baffles me, especially considering their overall record was a paltry 18-12, conference record was 10-8, they went 6-8 against tournament teams, and finished the season 4-6.  I can't understand why they were even considered, let alone made the field.

The common threads among these teams?  All are in major conferences and have good strength of schedules.  The latter is what the selection committee will point to as the deciding factor, but let's be honest -- it's the former that counts, and by counts, I mean $$$.  It's also telling that this tournament has the lowest number of mid-major at-large teams in the past 6 years.  I think the reason is fairly obvious, don't you?

But even that doesn't explain why Syracuse was left out.  They fit all the criteria above -- they're a good team from a major conference, and they even won the tournament a mere two years ago.  That's got to count for something.  Leaving the Orangemen out of the tournament but allowing in a mediocre Stanford team who's likely to get blown out by Louisville in the first round just doesn't make sense.  Good job guys.  :-P

Region ratings

#1 Midwest (median = 26.5) -- You'd think that being designated the overall #1 seed as Florida did would mean that your region should be the easiest.   Bzzzzzzzt.  Wrong.  Aside from a first round cakewalk against 16th-seeded Jackson State, the rest of the Midwest region is brutal.  In fact, minus JSU and #15 seed TAMU-CC, the lowest rated team in the Midwest by my system is Georgia Tech at #46.  This bracket is loaded with good teams and should produce the most upsets of the tournament.  Still, I can't see anyone beating the Gators in this region.  Assuming Joakim Noah and the rest of Florida play to their potential, there's just no one in their strata here.

#2 South (median = 31.5) -- Ohio State, although unstated, is likely the overall #2 seed in the tournament, but like the Midwest region, the South region is also pretty strong, despite Virginia and Tennessee's overrated seeds.  This region should prove to be interesting as well.

#3 West (median = 33.5) -- Gotta love this -- UCLA finishes with a thud, but still earns a #2 seed in the West region, meaning they're basically a #1 seed because of geography.  That's fairness for ya....

#4 East (median = 44.5) -- What a debacle.  It's North Carolina, Georgetown, and 14 dwarves.  The other three regions are at least somewhat fair in their distribution of teams, but this is ridiculous.  Even the #3 and #4 seeds are questionable, as Wazzu has had scoring problems as of late, and Texas is a one-man team around Kevin Durant.  In any other region, they could get bounced during the first weekend, but because the rest of the East region is so weak, they'll both make it to the regional semis, only to get crushed by the Tarheels and the Hoyas.  All that being said, a GU-UNC matchup should be very exciting.  Carolina's speed vs. Georgetown's height advantage -- has all the makings of an instant classic.  Too bad none of the other regional games will have that distinction.