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NCAA Football Prediction Results for 10/13/07 PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 15 October 2007
Yet another crazy week of big upsets in the college ranks.  Both LSU and Cal succumb to their opponents, as do Cincinnati, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, and Connecticut.  As can be expected, there's some shake-up in the ratings once again this week.
 
Home                     Line  Away                   CR Line   Conf   Score ATS Str Anl
========================================================================================
CINCINNATI               -9.5  Louisville              -30.10   0.854  24-28  L   L   U-
STANFORD                 +5.5  Texas Christian          -9.69   0.772  36-38  W   L
Oklahoma                -12.0  MISSOURI                 -0.22   0.742  41-31  W   W
Arkansas                 -3.0  AUBURN                   +8.99   0.730   7- 9  W   W   U+
Texas Tech              -10.0  TEXAS A&M                +0.73   0.720  35- 7  L   L   CR
Louisiana Tech           -7.5  NEW MEXICO STATE         +3.19   0.694  22-21  W   L
SOUTH FLORIDA           -11.5  Central Florida         -22.68   0.690  64-12  W   W
SAN JOSE STATE          +17.0  Hawaii                   +6.88   0.674  35-42  W   W
AKRON                   -10.5  Temple                  -20.39   0.669  20-24  L   L   U-
Colorado State           -2.5  AIR FORCE                +5.55   0.658  21-45  W   W   U+
Houston                 -22.5  RICE                    -13.38   0.652  56-48  W   W
ARIZONA STATE           -11.5  Washington              -20.36   0.651  44-20  W   W
Iowa                     +4.5  ILLINOIS                +12.49   0.646  10- 6  L   L   U-
MISSISSIPPI STATE        +7.0  Tennessee                +0.23   0.639  21-33  L   W   CR
Kansas State             -6.0  COLORADO                 +0.74   0.638  47-20  L   L   CR
Central Michigan        -14.0  ARMY                     -6.13   0.636  47-23  L   W   O
Michigan State           -3.5  INDIANA                  +3.68   0.635  52-27  L   L   CR
Penn State               -7.0  WISCONSIN                -0.73   0.629  38- 7  L   W   O
TULSA                   -14.0  Marshall                -21.15   0.620  38-31  L   W   CR
Northern Illinois        +4.0  WESTERN MICHIGAN        +10.41   0.619  13-17  T   W
Utah                    -14.0  SAN DIEGO STATE          -7.71   0.607  23- 7  L   W   O
Pittsburgh               -4.0  NAVY                     +1.12   0.604  45-48  W   W   U+
SYRACUSE                +17.5  Rutgers                 +11.43   0.602  14-38  L   W   O
WYOMING                  -4.0  New Mexico               -9.27   0.598   3-20  L   L   U-
Michigan                 -4.5  PURDUE                   +0.10   0.594  48-21  L   L   CR
NEBRASKA                 -4.0  Oklahoma State           -8.70   0.587  14-45  L   L   U-
Virginia                 -3.0  CONNECTICUT              +1.24   0.585  17-16  W   L
Southern California     -21.0  ARIZONA                 -16.07   0.581  20-13  W   W
WAKE FOREST              +6.0  Florida State            +1.82   0.580  24-21  W   L   U+
VANDERBILT               +7.0  Georgia                  +2.78   0.578  17-20  W   W
Kentucky                +10.0  LOUISIANA STATE         +14.32   0.574  43-37  L   L   U-
Memphis                  -3.0  MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST      +0.13   0.564   7-21  W   W   U+
Miami (Florida)          -2.0  GEORGIA TECH             +0.87   0.559  14-17  W   W   U+
North Carolina           +7.0  SOUTH CAROLINA          +10.16   0.556  15-21  L   W   CR
Idaho                   +10.5  FRESNO STATE            +13.67   0.554  24-37  W   W
IOWA STATE              +16.5  Texas                   +13.30   0.553   3-56  L   W   O
Alabama-Birmingham       -3.5  TULANE                   -1.16   0.547  26-21  L   W   CR
MIAMI (OHIO)             +0.0  Bowling Green            -2.05   0.546  47-14  W   W
North Texas              +7.0  LOUISIANA-MONROE         +9.39   0.542  31-21  L   L   U-
Texas-El Paso            -3.0  EAST CAROLINA            -0.97   0.542  42-45  W   L   U+
NEVADA-LAS VEGAS        +11.0  Brigham Young            +8.75   0.538  14-24  W   W
MISSISSIPPI              +7.0  Alabama                  +4.83   0.538  24-27  W   W
ARKANSAS STATE           -9.0  Louisiana-Lafayette     -11.20   0.538  52-21  W   W
DUKE                    +14.0  Virginia Tech           +12.00   0.533  14-43  L   W   O
Kansas                  -27.0  BAYLOR                  -25.07   0.532  58-10  L   W   O
Buffalo                  -4.0  TOLEDO                   -2.32   0.532  43-33  L   W   O
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI     -9.0  Southern Methodist      -10.74   0.530  28- 7  W   W
NOTRE DAME              +13.5  Boston College          +11.89   0.527  14-27  W   W
OREGON                  -19.5  Washington State        -20.90   0.523  53- 7  W   W
OHIO                     -4.0  Eastern Michigan         -5.14   0.521  48-42  W   W
NORTHWESTERN             -6.5  Minnesota                -7.68   0.521  49-48  L   W   O
Ohio State              -31.5  KENT                    -30.70   0.513  48- 3  L   W   O
CALIFORNIA              -14.0  Oregon State            -14.37   0.506  28-31  L   L   U-
Boise State             -26.5  NEVADA                  -26.27   0.504  69-67  W   W

Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread

This week straight up:          37-17           (68.5%)
This week against the spread:   27-26-1         (50.9%)

Vegas Error:               12.8333
CR Error:                  14.2925
Vegas Bias:                -1.3889
CR Bias:                   -1.8063
Vegas Mean Square Error:  266.2963
CR Mean Square Error:     327.0562

Extended Analysis
-----------------
key:    U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
        U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
        O  = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
        CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure

20.5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
7 wins vs. spread due to upsets
8 losses vs. spread due to upsets
10 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
8.5 losses due to Comprank failure

CR success rate --> 27.5/54 = 50.9%       Analysis:       Average
CR failure rate -->  8.5/54 = 15.7%       Analysis:       Above Average
upset ratio ------>   15/54 = 27.8%       Analysis:       High

Last Updated ( Monday, 15 October 2007 )
 
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