This week brought us quite a few close matchups, a few not-so-close games, and a handful of upsets, the most shocking to me being that Army actually got a win, and on the road no less. Overall, it was a week like most this season so far -- not too bad on picking winners and mediocre on picking vs. the spread. Parity is a wondrous thing...
Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl
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VANDERBILT +4.0 Auburn -8.58 0.733 14-13 W W U+
Miami (Florida) -2.5 FLORIDA STATE +8.97 0.725 39-41 W W U+
WESTERN MICHIGAN -4.5 Ohio -15.49 0.701 41-20 W W
Tennessee -16.0 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -5.01 0.692 13- 9 W W
ARKANSAS +24.0 Florida +12.54 0.691 7-38 L W O
North Carolina -6.5 CONNECTICUT +2.44 0.666 38-12 L L CR
UTAH STATE +29.5 Brigham Young +19.68 0.661 14-34 W W
TEXAS CHRISTIAN -24.0 San Diego State -33.76 0.661 41- 7 W W
Virginia Tech -28.0 WESTERN KENTUCKY -18.42 0.658 27-13 W W
Central Florida -14.0 SOUTHERN METHODIST -5.10 0.656 31-17 T W
Southern California -16.5 OREGON -8.13 0.642 44-10 L W O
UCLA -16.5 WASHINGTON STATE -8.17 0.641 28- 3 L W O
TULANE -19.5 Army -26.41 0.615 13-44 L L U-
CALIFORNIA -8.5 Arizona State -14.71 0.608 24-14 W W
BAYLOR +27.0 Oklahoma +21.35 0.593 17-49 L W O
Oklahoma State -24.5 TEXAS A&M -18.90 0.592 56-28 L W CR
Toledo +7.5 BALL STATE +12.59 0.589 0-31 W W
Georgia Tech -14.0 DUKE -8.82 0.588 27- 0 L W O
MISSISSIPPI -2.5 South Carolina -6.71 0.582 24-31 L L U-
MINNESOTA -7.0 Indiana -11.69 0.582 16- 7 W W
Tulsa -14.0 RICE -9.20 0.581 63-28 L W O
Colorado State -2.0 NEVADA-LAS VEGAS +1.87 0.574 41-28 L L CR
MICHIGAN -2.5 Illinois -5.81 0.565 20-45 L L U-
NEBRASKA +11.0 Missouri +7.36 0.562 17-52 L W O
Marshall +3.5 CINCINNATI +6.57 0.558 10-33 W W
COLORADO +13.5 Texas +10.34 0.553 14-38 L W O
Purdue +12.5 PENN STATE +15.59 0.552 6-20 W W
MICHIGAN STATE -9.5 Iowa -12.50 0.552 16-13 L W O
Alabama -16.5 KENTUCKY -13.71 0.546 17-14 W W
WISCONSIN +2.5 Ohio State +0.25 0.546 17-20 L W CR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST -2.5 Florida Atlantic -4.76 0.544 14-13 L W CR
Fresno State -22.0 HAWAII -19.43 0.542 29-32 W L U+
LOUISIANA-MONROE +2.0 Louisiana-Lafayette -0.05 0.542 35-44 L L CR
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI -8.0 Texas-El Paso -10.40 0.542 37-40 L L U-
Bowling Green -21.0 EASTERN MICHIGAN -18.70 0.538 21-24 W L U+
IOWA STATE +12.5 Kansas +10.31 0.537 33-35 W W
Kent State +3.5 AKRON +5.25 0.533 27-30 L W CR
NOTRE DAME -7.0 Stanford -8.61 0.528 28-21 T W
NORTH TEXAS +7.0 Florida Int'l +5.68 0.523 10-42 L W O
Miami (Ohio) -7.0 TEMPLE -5.90 0.519 10-28 W L U+
South Florida -13.5 PITTSBURGH -12.36 0.519 21-26 W L U+
Idaho +24.5 NEVADA +25.47 0.516 14-49 W W
Arizona -20.0 WASHINGTON -19.12 0.515 48-14 L W O
AIR FORCE -6.0 Navy -6.73 0.513 27-33 L L U-
VIRGINIA +13.5 Maryland +12.77 0.512 31- 0 W L U+
NEW MEXICO -11.0 Wyoming -11.63 0.511 24- 0 W W
North Carolina State +8.0 BOSTON COLLEGE +8.56 0.510 31-38 L W O
West Virginia -14.0 RUTGERS -13.45 0.509 24-17 W W
Utah -12.5 OREGON STATE -12.16 0.506 31-28 W W
Kansas State +7.0 TEXAS TECH +7.32 0.506 28-58 W W
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM +4.0 Memphis +3.89 0.502 30-33 W W
BOISE STATE -22.5 Louisiana Tech -22.58 0.501 38- 3 W W
Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread
This week straight up: 39-13 (75.0%)
This week against the spread: 26-24-2 (51.9%)
Vegas Error: 12.7692
CR Error: 13.6476
Vegas Bias: 3.7115
CR Bias: 3.6958
Vegas Mean Square Error: 272.5865
CR Mean Square Error: 311.9227
Extended Analysis
-----------------
key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure
20 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
7 wins vs. spread due to upsets
5 losses vs. spread due to upsets
12 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
8 losses due to Comprank failure
CR success rate --> 27/52 = 51.9% Analysis: Average
CR failure rate --> 8/52 = 15.4% Analysis: Above Average
upset ratio ------> 12/52 = 23.1% Analysis: Above Average
