Another round of high-ranked teams getting upset this week, none more surprising than Ohio State falling at home to unranked Illinois. Overall, the system fared below average due to large part to the number of upsets as well as the play of teams who either over or under performed compared to their play so far this season. Next week is rivalry week and should be a heck of a week.
Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl
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Washington State -11.0 STANFORD -0.91 0.707 33-17 L W CR
NEW MEXICO -9.0 Colorado State -20.25 0.694 26-23 L W CR
TEMPLE +24.5 Penn State +12.88 0.693 0-31 L W O
Southern Methodist -6.5 RICE +3.45 0.679 42-43 W W U+
Hawaii -17.0 FRESNO STATE -8.15 0.650 37-30 W W
Cincinnati -6.5 CONNECTICUT +0.66 0.647 27- 3 L L CR
ARMY +19.0 Rutgers +10.42 0.644 6-41 L W O
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST -13.5 Louisiana-Lafayette -21.98 0.643 24-34 L L U-
Oklahoma State +6.0 KANSAS +13.17 0.628 28-43 W W
PURDUE -4.0 Michigan State -10.72 0.624 31-48 L L U-
TENNESSEE -1.0 Arkansas -6.51 0.623 34-13 W W
Nevada-Las Vegas -3.0 SAN DIEGO STATE +3.25 0.620 30-38 W W U+
Miami (Florida) -3.5 VIRGINIA +2.67 0.614 0-48 W W U+
Southern Mississippi -16.5 MEMPHIS -9.79 0.613 26-29 W L U+
NORTH CAROLINA STATE -3.5 North Carolina -9.30 0.609 31-27 W W
Marshall +7.0 EAST CAROLINA +13.18 0.609 26- 7 L L U-
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM +20.5 Central Florida +14.40 0.601 31-45 W W
Iowa State +4.0 COLORADO +9.06 0.594 31-28 L L U-
DUKE +13.5 Georgia Tech +8.50 0.585 24-41 L W CR
TEXAS -6.5 Texas Tech -11.26 0.584 59-43 W W
SYRACUSE +16.5 South Florida +11.53 0.583 10-41 L W O
GEORGIA -2.0 Auburn -5.86 0.578 45-20 W W
OREGON STATE -5.0 Washington -9.29 0.578 29-23 W W
VANDERBILT +3.5 Kentucky -0.29 0.578 20-27 L L CR
Tulsa -1.0 HOUSTON +2.15 0.570 56- 7 L L CR
Louisiana State -35.5 LOUISIANA TECH -31.26 0.569 58-10 L W O
Northern Illinois +3.5 KENT +6.87 0.563 27-20 L L U-
Notre Dame +3.5 AIR FORCE +6.80 0.562 24-41 W W
Missouri -19.0 TEXAS A&M -15.30 0.561 40-26 W W
IOWA -14.5 Minnesota -17.96 0.558 21-16 L W O
UCLA +7.0 ARIZONA STATE +10.26 0.557 20-24 L W CR
VIRGINIA TECH -6.5 Florida State -9.61 0.555 40-21 W W
Oklahoma -38.0 BAYLOR -34.80 0.552 52-21 W W
WEST VIRGINIA -17.0 Louisville -20.10 0.552 38-31 L W O
Western Michigan +3.0 CENTRAL MICHIGAN +5.59 0.550 31-34 T W
NEBRASKA +7.5 Kansas State +4.77 0.548 73-31 W L U+
OHIO STATE -15.5 Illinois -17.96 0.541 21-28 L L U-
Wisconsin +2.5 MICHIGAN +4.46 0.538 37-21 L L U-
SOUTH CAROLINA +7.0 Florida +5.24 0.531 31-51 L W O
Florida Atlantic -6.5 ARKANSAS STATE -4.86 0.529 34-31 W W
San Jose State -4.0 NEW MEXICO STATE -2.50 0.528 51-17 L W O
MISSISSIPPI STATE +4.5 Alabama +3.10 0.525 17-12 W L U+
CLEMSON -9.0 Wake Forest -10.05 0.518 44-10 W W
NORTHWESTERN +2.5 Indiana +1.60 0.517 31-28 W L U+
Eastern Michigan +3.5 BOWLING GREEN +4.41 0.517 32-39 W W
Utah -13.0 WYOMING -12.06 0.516 50- 0 L W O
Western Kentucky +0.0 TROY STATE +0.67 0.515 17-21 W W
CALIFORNIA +4.0 Southern California +3.18 0.515 17-24 L W O
Maryland +6.5 BOSTON COLLEGE +7.21 0.513 42-35 L L U-
Tulane +4.0 TEXAS-EL PASO +4.61 0.511 34-19 L L U-
BRIGHAM YOUNG -7.0 Texas Christian -7.57 0.510 27-22 L W O
UTAH STATE +24.0 Boise State +23.53 0.508 0-52 L W O
AKRON +2.5 Ohio +2.26 0.505 48-37 W L U+
NORTH TEXAS +15.5 Navy +15.41 0.501 62-74 W W
Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread
This week straight up: 37-17 (68.5%)
This week against the spread: 25-28-1 (47.2%)
Vegas Error: 13.9722
CR Error: 14.8537
Vegas Bias: -1.8426
CR Bias: -1.7765
Vegas Mean Square Error: 339.1065
CR Mean Square Error: 375.5617
Extended Analysis
-----------------
key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure
17.5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
8 wins vs. spread due to upsets
9 losses vs. spread due to upsets
12 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
7.5 losses due to Comprank failure
CR success rate --> 25.5/54 = 47.2% Analysis: Slightly Below Average
CR failure rate --> 7.5/54 = 13.9% Analysis: Slightly Above Average
upset ratio ------> 17/54 = 31.5% Analysis: Extremely High
