| NCAA Football Prediction Results for 11/17/07 |
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| Sunday, 18 November 2007 | |
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Ohio State pulls out the W and the fans in Columbus are very pleased tonight. Not just because of the victory in Ann Arbor, but also because they're guaranteed to move up two places in the polls following Oregon and Oklahoma's losses this weekend, and now the possibility of a return trip to the BCS championship is dim, but getting brighter. Elsewhere, as mentioned above, Texas Tech held on to beat Oklahoma, and Oregon's loss isn't so much the game, but that Heisman candidate QB Dennis Dixon is out for the season with a torn ACL. West Virginia escaped Cincy with a W, and more on that later in the new ratings. And hats off to Notre Dame on their 2nd win of the season. Way to go guys! :-P Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl ======================================================================================== Arkansas -11.0 MISSISSIPPI STATE +0.74 0.741 45-31 L L CR Florida -34.5 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -25.66 0.644 59-20 L W CR TEMPLE +1.0 Kent -5.27 0.640 24-14 W W U+ Arizona +10.5 OREGON +18.52 0.637 34-24 L L U- Washington State -2.5 OREGON STATE +4.37 0.635 17-52 W W U+ KANSAS -27.0 Iowa State -34.35 0.621 45- 7 W W BOISE STATE -34.5 Idaho -41.31 0.611 58-14 W W Alabama -24.5 LOUISIANA-MONROE -18.12 0.605 14-21 W L U+ CONNECTICUT -18.5 Syracuse -24.74 0.604 30- 7 W W CENTRAL MICHIGAN -13.0 Eastern Michigan -18.92 0.600 45-48 L L U- Texas Tech +7.5 OKLAHOMA +12.97 0.596 34-27 L L U- Michigan State +2.5 PENN STATE +7.11 0.590 35-31 L L U- Kansas State +7.0 MISSOURI +12.05 0.589 32-49 W W SOUTH FLORIDA -7.0 Louisville -11.64 0.582 55-17 W W WASHINGTON +7.0 California +2.80 0.577 37-23 W L U+ GEORGIA -7.5 Kentucky -11.69 0.573 24-13 W W Nevada +7.0 HAWAII +11.03 0.571 26-28 L W O ARMY +15.5 Tulsa +11.43 0.568 39-49 W W VIRGINIA TECH -17.0 Miami (Florida) -20.95 0.566 44-14 W W NAVY -16.0 Northern Illinois -19.89 0.565 35-24 L W O WYOMING +10.0 Brigham Young +6.30 0.564 10-35 L W O ILLINOIS -13.5 Northwestern -17.02 0.559 41-22 W W CLEMSON -7.5 Boston College -10.74 0.557 17-20 L L U- GEORGIA TECH -10.0 North Carolina -12.94 0.550 27-25 L W O Arkansas State -15.5 NORTH TEXAS -12.61 0.548 31-27 W W CINCINNATI +6.0 West Virginia +3.45 0.546 23-28 W W Southern Methodist +13.0 CENTRAL FLORIDA +15.46 0.542 20-49 W W IOWA -13.5 Western Michigan -15.96 0.542 19-28 L L U- BAYLOR +14.0 Oklahoma State +11.65 0.539 14-45 L W O Utah -14.0 NEW MEXICO -11.79 0.537 28-10 L W O Texas Christian -18.0 NEVADA-LAS VEGAS -16.02 0.533 34-10 L W O Notre Dame -6.0 DUKE -4.21 0.532 28- 7 L W O RICE -2.0 Tulane -3.23 0.525 31-45 L L U- MEMPHIS -11.0 Alabama-Birmingham -12.34 0.523 25- 9 W W NEW MEXICO STATE -9.5 Utah State -10.81 0.522 17-35 L L U- MINNESOTA +13.5 Wisconsin +12.15 0.522 34-41 W W Michigan +4.5 OHIO STATE +5.55 0.519 3-14 W W MIAMI (OHIO) -7.0 Akron -8.02 0.518 7- 0 T W Florida Int'l +4.0 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE +4.73 0.514 28-38 W W Mississippi +18.5 LOUISIANA STATE +19.26 0.513 24-41 L W O FLORIDA STATE -7.0 Maryland -7.59 0.510 24-16 W W BUFFALO +1.0 Bowling Green +0.62 0.508 17-31 L W O HOUSTON -12.0 Marshall -12.39 0.507 35-28 L W O TENNESSEE -12.0 Vanderbilt -12.37 0.506 25-24 L W O Indiana +2.0 PURDUE +2.20 0.504 27-24 L L U- Louisiana Tech -5.5 SAN JOSE STATE -5.27 0.504 27-23 W W Ball State -7.0 TOLEDO -6.78 0.504 41-20 L W O TEXAS-EL PASO +3.0 Southern Mississippi +2.81 0.503 30-56 L W O Air Force -11.0 SAN DIEGO STATE -10.80 0.503 55-23 L W O Wake Forest -6.0 NORTH CAROLINA STATE -5.95 0.501 38-18 L W O Rutgers -11.5 PITTSBURGH -11.48 0.500 20-16 W W
This week straight up: 39-12 (76.5%) This week against the spread: 23-27-1 (46.1%)
CR Error: 11.4849 Vegas Bias: 1.0588 CR Bias: 1.2671 Vegas Mean Square Error: 201.6667 CR Mean Square Error: 204.2349 Extended Analysis ----------------- key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure 19.5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success 4 wins vs. spread due to upsets 9 losses vs. spread due to upsets 16 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents 2.5 losses due to Comprank failure
CR failure rate --> 2.5/51 = 4.9% Analysis: Low upset ratio ------> 13/51 = 25.5% Analysis: Above Average |
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