| NCAA Football Prediction Results for 9-15-07 |
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| Tuesday, 11 September 2007 | |
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Whew -- upset city! Louisville goes down at Kentucky, UCLA completely self-destruct at Utah, Auburn melts down at home vs. Miss State, and last but certainly not least, Duke finally snaps their long losing streak with a win at Northwestern. That oughta shake things up a bit in the ratings. In other games, USC proved they're up to the task with a 49-31 pasting of Nebraska, while LSU lays a goose egg on MTSU with a 44-0 beating. Ohio State wakes up in the 2nd half for the 3rd straight game and beats Washington 33-14, while Florida beats the snot out of Tennessee 59-20. Boston College also pulls an upset tonight beating host GT 24-10, and Texas escapes by the skin of their teeth at Central Florida, 35-32. Last, and debatably least, Michigan crushes South Bend Junior High -- errmmm, uh, no that actually was Notre Dame. Either way, the Wolverines finally get a W to the tune of 38-0. Is Michigan back on track or is Notre Dame really that bad? Maybe both. Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl ======================================================================================== California -33.5 LOUISIANA TECH -19.91 0.723 42-12 W W Michigan State -9.0 PITTSBURGH +0.95 0.704 17-13 W L MARYLAND +16.5 West Virginia +4.99 0.701 14-31 L W O MIAMI (FLORIDA) -32.5 Florida Int'l -44.62 0.698 23- 9 L W O Washington State -26.0 IDAHO -14.72 0.687 45-28 W W FLORIDA ATLANTIC +9.5 Minnesota +0.40 0.687 42-39 W L U+ Miami (Ohio) +9.0 CINCINNATI +19.32 0.678 10-47 W W New Mexico State -6.5 TEXAS-EL PASO +2.97 0.673 29-24 W L CENTRAL FLORIDA +19.0 Texas +9.85 0.654 32-35 W W RICE +28.5 Texas Tech +19.25 0.652 24-59 L W O NEBRASKA +10.5 Southern California +3.01 0.637 31-49 L W O KANSAS -21.5 Toledo -29.65 0.635 45-13 W W Purdue -19.5 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -11.54 0.633 45-22 L W CR SYRACUSE +12.5 Illinois +5.67 0.619 20-41 L W O AIR FORCE +8.5 Texas Christian +2.33 0.615 20-17 W L U+ NORTHWESTERN -16.0 Duke -22.61 0.611 14-20 L L U- NEVADA-LAS VEGAS +17.5 Hawaii +11.26 0.604 14-49 L W O TULANE +14.5 Houston +8.74 0.598 10-34 L W O KENTUCKY +7.0 Louisville +2.04 0.594 40-34 W L U+ Michigan -9.5 NOTRE DAME -4.25 0.593 38- 0 L W O TROY STATE +10.0 Oklahoma State +4.91 0.589 41-23 W L U+ TULSA +6.5 Brigham Young +1.85 0.589 55-47 W L U+ Penn State -34.0 BUFFALO -28.73 0.586 45-24 W W Stanford -7.0 SAN JOSE STATE -2.47 0.584 37- 0 L W O Missouri -20.0 WESTERN MICHIGAN -14.95 0.584 52-24 L W O Boise State -12.5 WYOMING -7.65 0.583 24-14 W W Connecticut -29.5 TEMPLE -24.53 0.581 22-17 W W North Carolina -3.0 VIRGINIA +0.88 0.580 20-22 W W U+ IOWA STATE +17.0 Iowa +12.78 0.570 15-13 W L U+ Virginia Tech -19.0 OHIO -14.80 0.570 28- 7 L W CR Alabama -3.0 ARKANSAS +0.29 0.567 41-38 T L Oklahoma -45.5 UTAH STATE -41.43 0.566 54- 3 L W O Louisiana State -40.5 MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST -36.50 0.565 44- 0 L W O WASHINGTON +4.5 Ohio State +1.40 0.561 14-33 L W O OREGON -16.0 Fresno State -19.59 0.560 52-21 W W COLORADO +3.5 Florida State +0.70 0.557 6-16 L W O Georgia Tech -7.0 BOSTON COLLEGE -3.79 0.557 10-24 W L U+ Indiana -13.0 AKRON -9.64 0.557 41-24 L W O Wake Forest -21.0 ARMY -18.40 0.543 21-10 W W FLORIDA -8.0 Tennessee -10.44 0.543 59-20 W W Arizona -10.0 NEW MEXICO -7.96 0.535 27-29 W L U+ Arizona State -28.0 SAN DIEGO STATE -25.89 0.534 34-13 W W Arkansas State -3.0 SOUTHERN METHODIST -1.50 0.529 45-28 L W O NAVY -7.0 Ball State -8.29 0.523 31-34 L L U- East Carolina -1.0 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI +0.06 0.522 21-28 W W U+ AUBURN -12.5 Mississippi State -13.49 0.517 14-19 L L U- Vanderbilt -5.0 MISSISSIPPI -4.08 0.516 31-17 L W O UTAH +13.5 UCLA +12.54 0.516 44- 6 W L U+ Texas A&M -24.0 LOUISIANA-MONROE -23.46 0.509 54-14 L W O Northern Illinois -14.0 EASTERN MICHIGAN -13.69 0.505 19-21 W L U+
This week straight up: 34-16 (68.0%) This week against the spread: 26-23-1 (53.0%)
CR Error: 13.6406 Vegas Bias: -0.8300 CR Bias: -0.7719 Vegas Mean Square Error: 264.2550 CR Mean Square Error: 280.1452 Extended Analysis ----------------- key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure 14.5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success 12 wins vs. spread due to upsets 3 losses vs. spread due to upsets 18 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents 2.5 losses due to Comprank failure
CR failure rate --> 2.5/50 = 5.0% Analysis: Low upset ratio ------> 15/50 = 30.0% Analysis: Extremely High |
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| Last Updated ( Monday, 17 September 2007 ) |
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