Brutal week for my predictions. I'm not sure why it had such a bad week, but the beginning of conference play, with its heightened emotions may have something to do with it. Either way, pretty ugly results -- hope for better next week.
Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl
========================================================================================
IDAHO -2.0 Northern Illinois -18.42 0.831 35-42 L L U-
Colorado -13.5 MIAMI (OHIO) +0.15 0.780 42- 0 L L CR
Brigham Young -9.5 AIR FORCE +5.57 0.762 31- 6 L L CR
INDIANA +3.0 Illinois -10.43 0.757 14-27 L L CR
Arizona State -11.5 OREGON STATE +0.80 0.752 44-32 L L CR
CINCINNATI -23.0 Marshall -36.56 0.724 40-14 W W
Middle Tennessee St +0.0 WESTERN KENTUCKY +9.76 0.718 17-20 W W
Arkansas -7.0 KENTUCKY +2.56 0.677 29-42 W W U+
Pittsburgh -9.0 CONNECTICUT -0.80 0.668 14-34 W L U+
BUFFALO +4.0 Baylor -4.97 0.666 21-34 L L CR
HOUSTON -7.0 Colorado State -16.05 0.659 38-27 W W
ALABAMA -3.5 Georgia -11.71 0.654 23-26 L L U-
TOLEDO +3.5 Iowa State -4.50 0.650 36-35 W W U+
Texas -38.5 RICE -30.12 0.637 58-14 L W O
TULSA +20.5 Oklahoma +12.39 0.635 21-62 L W O
Oklahoma State +1.5 TEXAS TECH +7.85 0.634 49-45 L L U-
Auburn -17.0 NEW MEXICO STATE -9.15 0.632 55-20 L W O
WISCONSIN -7.0 Iowa -14.08 0.624 17-13 L W O
SOUTH FLORIDA -13.5 North Carolina -20.75 0.622 37-10 W W
Michigan +2.5 PENN STATE +8.63 0.620 14- 9 L L U-
Miami (Florida) -3.0 TEXAS A&M +3.17 0.618 34-17 L L CR
Tennessee -18.5 ARKANSAS STATE -11.86 0.611 48-27 L W CR
MISSISSIPPI +21.0 Florida +14.76 0.603 24-30 W W
LOUISVILLE -37.0 Syracuse -42.70 0.593 35-38 L L U-
WAKE FOREST -3.0 Maryland -7.42 0.585 31-24 W W
Nebraska -21.5 BALL STATE -16.64 0.580 41-40 W W
Louisiana-Lafayette +10.5 TROY STATE +14.29 0.565 31-48 W W
NEVADA-LAS VEGAS +8.5 Utah +4.85 0.564 27- 0 W L U+
Bowling Green -21.0 TEMPLE -17.25 0.562 48-35 W W
Utah State -3.5 SAN JOSE STATE -0.76 0.556 20-23 W L U+
MINNESOTA +14.0 Purdue +10.82 0.553 31-45 T W
Kansas -29.5 FLORIDA INT'L -26.77 0.545 55- 3 L W O
OHIO +3.5 Wyoming +1.56 0.538 33-34 W W
North Texas +6.0 FLORIDA ATLANTIC +7.95 0.535 20-30 W W
OHIO STATE -22.0 Northwestern -23.87 0.531 58- 7 W W
LOUISIANA STATE -16.0 South Carolina -17.84 0.531 28-16 L W O
CENTRAL FLORIDA -7.0 Memphis -8.66 0.529 56-20 W W
Virginia +3.5 GEORGIA TECH +4.99 0.528 28-23 L L U-
West Virginia -24.5 EAST CAROLINA -22.83 0.527 48- 7 L W O
Southern California -24.5 WASHINGTON STATE -22.94 0.525 47-14 L W O
Texas Christian -20.0 SOUTHERN METHODIST -18.80 0.520 21- 7 W W
STANFORD +16.5 Oregon +15.39 0.518 31-55 L W O
NOTRE DAME +13.5 Michigan State +12.56 0.516 14-31 L W O
Boston College -28.5 ARMY -27.66 0.514 37-17 W W
NAVY -10.5 Duke -11.17 0.512 46-43 L W O
CALIFORNIA -16.5 Arizona -17.07 0.510 45-27 W W
UCLA -5.5 WASHINGTON -5.07 0.507 44-31 L W O
NORTH CAROLINA STATE +8.0 Clemson +7.80 0.503 20-42 L W O
AKRON +3.5 Kent +3.48 0.500 27-20 W L U+
Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread
This week straight up: 33-16 (67.3%)
This week against the spread: 22-26-1 (45.9%)
Vegas Error: 11.4184
CR Error: 13.7442
Vegas Bias: -1.3571
CR Bias: -1.4183
Vegas Mean Square Error: 220.7704
CR Mean Square Error: 301.2991
Extended Analysis
-----------------
key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure
16.5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
6 wins vs. spread due to upsets
6 losses vs. spread due to upsets
13 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
7.5 losses due to Comprank failure
CR success rate --> 22.5/49 = 45.9% Analysis: Below Average
CR failure rate --> 7.5/49 = 15.3% Analysis: Above Average
upset ratio ------> 12/49 = 24.5% Analysis: Above Average
