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NCAA Football Prediction Results for 9-8-07 |
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Wednesday, 05 September 2007 |
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Caveat emptor -- the ratings are early and not fully baked yet, so these predictions may be a bit wacky. Use your own judgement.
Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl
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Oklahoma State -22.5 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -1.42 0.916 42- 6 L W O
NEVADA-LAS VEGAS +27.0 Wisconsin +7.60 0.831 13-20 W W
Florida State -35.0 ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM -16.02 0.814 34-24 W W
Tennessee -11.5 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI +0.52 0.746 39-19 L L CR
Michigan State -17.5 BOWLING GREEN -3.79 0.745 28-17 W W
LOUISIANA TECH +28.0 Hawaii +13.29 0.745 44-45 W W
Clemson -26.5 LOUISIANA-MONROE -13.46 0.717 49-26 W W
Louisville -39.5 MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST -27.16 0.701 58-42 W W
Ohio State -29.0 AKRON -17.04 0.697 20- 2 W W
Kansas State -17.0 SAN JOSE STATE -5.96 0.691 34-14 L W CR
Texas Tech -24.5 TEXAS-EL PASO -13.21 0.688 45-31 W W
Iowa -23.0 SYRACUSE -11.93 0.685 35- 0 L W O
Texas -10.0 TEXAS CHRISTIAN -1.25 0.675 34-13 L W O
Michigan -8.0 OREGON +0.30 0.670 7-39 W W U+
Utah -8.0 AIR FORCE -0.56 0.653 12-20 W L U+
CINCINNATI +3.5 Oregon State -3.76 0.636 34- 3 W W U+
Western Michigan +1.0 INDIANA +6.83 0.630 27-37 W W
Texas A&M -18.0 FRESNO STATE -10.44 0.627 47-45 W W
Southern Methodist -18.0 NORTH TEXAS -10.81 0.621 45-31 W W
Baylor -6.0 RICE -0.14 0.620 42-17 L W O
WASHINGTON STATE -14.0 San Diego State -20.95 0.617 45-17 W W
MISSISSIPPI +6.0 Missouri +0.51 0.612 25-38 L W O
FLORIDA INT'L +23.5 Maryland +16.92 0.609 10-26 W W
New Mexico -7.0 NEW MEXICO STATE -1.90 0.597 44-34 L W O
WAKE FOREST +8.0 Nebraska +2.74 0.597 17-20 W W
OKLAHOMA -10.5 Miami (Florida) -16.15 0.597 51-13 W W
Auburn -7.0 SOUTH FLORIDA -1.96 0.596 23-26 W L U+
COLORADO STATE +14.0 California +8.47 0.594 28-34 W W
BOSTON COLLEGE -14.0 North Carolina State -18.74 0.580 37-17 W W
UCLA -7.0 BRIGHAM YOUNG -2.77 0.578 27-17 L W O
Virginia -16.5 DUKE -11.94 0.576 24-13 W W
EASTERN MICHIGAN +5.5 Ball State +1.60 0.576 16-38 L W O
Wyoming -25.0 UTAH STATE -20.52 0.574 32-18 W W
PENN STATE -17.0 Notre Dame -21.27 0.571 31-10 W W
Minnesota -9.0 MIAMI (OHIO) -4.95 0.571 41-35 W W
Florida -26.0 TROY STATE -22.48 0.558 59-31 L W CR
VANDERBILT +3.0 Alabama +0.26 0.556 10-24 L W O
Washington +3.0 BOISE STATE +5.66 0.551 24-10 L L U-
Louisiana State -12.5 VIRGINIA TECH -9.54 0.550 48- 7 L W O
Temple -3.5 BUFFALO -1.18 0.547 7-42 W L U+
ARIZONA STATE -14.5 Colorado -16.91 0.541 33-14 W W
Kentucky -12.5 KENT -10.28 0.537 56-20 L W O
RUTGERS -15.0 Navy -16.77 0.530 41-24 W W
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3.0 Toledo -4.24 0.524 52-31 W W
TULANE +6.0 Mississippi State +4.69 0.523 17-38 L W O
MARSHALL +23.5 West Virginia +22.13 0.522 23-48 L W O
Georgia -5.0 SOUTH CAROLINA -4.07 0.517 12-16 W L U+
Northwestern -8.0 NEVADA -7.55 0.508 36-31 W W
EAST CAROLINA -4.0 North Carolina -4.09 0.502 34-31 L W O
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE +1.5 Ohio +1.44 0.501 23-31 L W O
Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread
This week straight up: 44-6 (88.0%)
This week against the spread: 31-19 (62.0%)
Vegas Error: 12.5100
CR Error: 11.0448
Vegas Bias: -0.3700
CR Bias: -2.9551
Vegas Mean Square Error: 251.9850
CR Mean Square Error: 225.1741
Extended Analysis
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key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure
25 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
6 wins vs. spread due to upsets
1 losses vs. spread due to upsets
15 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
3 losses due to Comprank failure
CR success rate --> 31/50 = 62.0% Analysis: Extremely High
CR failure rate --> 3/50 = 6.0% Analysis: Below Average
upset ratio ------> 7/50 = 14.0% Analysis: Slightly Below Average
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 11 September 2007 )
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