| NCAA Football Predictions for 10/6/07 |
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| Tuesday, 02 October 2007 | |
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Wow...another wild week of upsets in the Top 25, and none more shocking then USC taking one on the chin at home vs. Stanford. It's been a really strange year of upsets so far. Of course, we can finally give props to Notre Dame for getting that first victory, although I'm not entirely sure how much of that was good play by the Irish, or really bad execution by UCLA. As for the system, it was a fair week straight up, but a very good week against the spread, so seems that things are getting more solidified in the system now, which is both good and expected by this point in the season. New predictions for next week should come out sometime on Monday afternoon. Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl ======================================================================================== Syracuse +0.0 WEST VIRGINIA +15.29 0.841 14-55 W W Colorado State -13.0 SAN DIEGO STATE +0.95 0.786 20-24 W W U+ Michigan -31.5 EASTERN MICHIGAN -17.42 0.732 33-22 W W Washington State +8.5 ARIZONA STATE +21.85 0.731 20-23 L W O UCLA -20.5 Notre Dame -34.40 0.731 6-20 L L U- Rutgers -3.0 CINCINNATI +6.03 0.673 23-28 W W U+ Southern California -38.5 STANFORD -28.72 0.659 23-24 W L U+ Western Michigan -8.5 AKRON -0.87 0.656 38-39 W L U+ Tennessee -2.0 GEORGIA +5.41 0.650 35-14 L L CR Florida Int'l +18.5 TROY STATE +27.26 0.646 16-34 L W CR Mississippi -13.0 LOUISIANA TECH -5.41 0.632 24- 0 L W O AUBURN -7.5 Vanderbilt -15.05 0.632 35- 7 W W Missouri -7.0 NEBRASKA -0.89 0.625 41- 6 L W O Clemson -5.0 VIRGINIA TECH +1.26 0.625 23-41 W W U+ Louisville -14.5 UTAH -7.58 0.618 35-44 W L U+ TEMPLE +4.0 Northern Illinois -1.98 0.614 16-15 W W U+ Hawaii -40.0 UTAH STATE -33.05 0.613 52-37 W W Army -7.0 TULANE -1.36 0.612 20-17 W W INDIANA -13.0 Minnesota -18.92 0.600 40-20 W W LOUISIANA STATE -9.0 Florida -14.71 0.599 28-24 L W O Boise State -23.0 NEW MEXICO STATE -17.56 0.590 58- 0 L W O KANSAS STATE -3.0 Kansas -7.64 0.589 24-30 L L U- South Carolina -3.5 KENTUCKY +0.43 0.580 38-23 L L CR Boston College -20.0 BOWLING GREEN -15.16 0.580 55-24 L W O Nevada -3.5 FRESNO STATE +0.32 0.578 41-49 W W U+ TEXAS +11.0 Oklahoma +6.60 0.576 21-28 W W Louisiana-Monroe +2.5 ARKANSAS STATE +6.35 0.575 30-13 L L U- Texas Tech -25.0 IOWA STATE -20.55 0.573 42-17 T W BUFFALO +4.0 Ohio +0.71 0.567 31-10 W L U+ WYOMING -3.0 Texas Christian -6.12 0.560 24-21 T W Oregon State -4.0 ARIZONA -1.13 0.558 31-16 L W O EAST CAROLINA +3.5 Central Florida +0.78 0.556 52-38 W L U+ ALABAMA -11.0 Houston -13.61 0.545 30-24 L W O Illinois -2.5 WISCONSIN -0.53 0.540 31-26 L W O Memphis -2.5 MARSHALL -0.58 0.539 24-21 L W CR FLORIDA STATE -18.0 North Carolina State -20.26 0.538 27-10 L W CR DUKE +7.0 Wake Forest +4.92 0.536 36-41 W W AIR FORCE -5.5 Nevada-Las Vegas -7.44 0.535 31-14 W W NORTH CAROLINA +7.0 Miami (Florida) +5.32 0.529 33-27 W L U+ Purdue +7.0 OHIO STATE +8.46 0.526 7-23 W W FLORIDA ATLANTIC +15.5 South Florida +13.96 0.526 23-35 W W SAN JOSE STATE -7.0 Idaho -8.28 0.523 28-20 W W Mississippi State -18.0 ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM -16.72 0.521 30-13 W W Michigan State -14.5 NORTHWESTERN -13.29 0.520 41-48 W L U+ MARYLAND +2.5 Georgia Tech +1.65 0.517 28-26 W L U+ Louisiana-Lafayette -8.0 NORTH TEXAS -7.47 0.509 38-29 L W O Kent -9.5 MIAMI (OHIO) -9.00 0.508 13-20 W L U+ Texas A&M -6.5 OKLAHOMA STATE -6.03 0.508 24-23 W W BALL STATE -13.0 Central Michigan -13.44 0.507 38-58 L L U- Texas-El Paso +3.0 TULSA +3.38 0.507 48-47 L L U- MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST +10.0 Virginia +9.72 0.505 21-23 W W SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI -21.0 Rice -21.23 0.504 29-31 L L U- Baylor +8.5 COLORADO +8.60 0.502 23-43 W W Penn State -8.0 IOWA -7.94 0.501 27- 7 L W O
This week straight up: 37-17 (68.5%) This week against the spread: 30-22-2 (57.4%)
CR Error: 12.3030 Vegas Bias: 1.9167 CR Bias: -0.0346 Vegas Mean Square Error: 280.8565 CR Mean Square Error: 271.8292 Extended Analysis ----------------- key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure 17 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success 14 wins vs. spread due to upsets 6 losses vs. spread due to upsets 11 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents 6 losses due to Comprank failure
CR failure rate --> 6/54 = 11.1% Analysis: Average upset ratio ------> 20/54 = 37.0% Analysis: Extremely High |
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| Last Updated ( Monday, 08 October 2007 ) |
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