WOW! Upset Saturday! Oklahoma, Florida, West Virginia, Texas, and Oregon all go down today! Holy cow! I don't recall the last time a shake-up like this has happened -- maybe 2003 or last two weeks of 1996? Unbelieveable!
Overall, I fared a bit less than solvent for games against the spread, but did fairly well straight up, especially considering all the upsets today. In any case, it was far better than last week, so I'm feeling better about the system, if not quite "happy" about the returns.
Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl
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MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST -9.5 Florida Int'l -21.44 0.705 47- 6 W W
TROY STATE -12.5 Louisiana-Monroe -24.25 0.699 24- 7 W W
Iowa -10.5 INDIANA -0.91 0.697 20-38 W L U+
Bowling Green +0.0 WESTERN KENTUCKY +8.19 0.682 41-21 L L CR
TULANE +42.0 Louisiana State +30.81 0.682 9-34 W W
NEBRASKA -21.5 Iowa State -32.50 0.682 35-17 L W O
ILLINOIS +3.0 Penn State -6.20 0.676 27-20 W W U+
Vanderbilt -21.5 EASTERN MICHIGAN -11.81 0.662 30- 7 L W O
Texas A&M -17.0 BAYLOR -7.59 0.660 34-10 L W O
WASHINGTON +20.5 Southern California +11.32 0.654 24-27 W W
IDAHO +25.5 Hawaii +16.23 0.653 20-48 L W CR
NORTHWESTERN +17.0 Michigan +8.35 0.647 16-28 W W
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3.0 Northern Illinois -10.63 0.646 35-10 W W
Nevada -3.5 NEVADA-LAS VEGAS +3.53 0.632 27-20 L L CR
VIRGINIA TECH -19.0 North Carolina -26.78 0.629 17-10 L W O
SOUTH FLORIDA +7.5 West Virginia +1.21 0.626 21-13 W L U+
NORTH CAROLINA STATE +8.0 Louisville +1.77 0.620 10-29 L W O
Arizona -3.0 WASHINGTON STATE +3.18 0.618 48-20 L L CR
ARKANSAS STATE -5.0 Memphis -11.36 0.615 35-31 L W CR
San Diego State +15.0 CINCINNATI +21.70 0.613 23-52 W W
Southern Methodist -1.0 TEXAS-EL PASO +3.96 0.610 45-48 W W U+
Arkansas -35.5 NORTH TEXAS -28.97 0.606 66- 7 L W O
Navy -2.5 AIR FORCE +2.75 0.603 31-20 L L CR
TEXAS CHRISTIAN -10.0 Colorado State -15.74 0.598 24-12 W W
Kentucky -24.5 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -18.63 0.597 45-17 L W CR
Fresno State -12.5 LOUISIANA TECH -6.99 0.594 17- 6 W W
COLORADO +23.0 Oklahoma +17.34 0.593 27-24 W L U+
Oregon State -2.5 UCLA +2.26 0.589 14-40 W W U+
Utah -21.5 UTAH STATE -16.67 0.580 34-18 W W
ARMY -6.5 Temple -10.83 0.577 37-21 W W
Connecticut -15.5 AKRON -11.67 0.564 44-10 L W O
HOUSTON -13.5 East Carolina -17.23 0.563 35-37 L L U-
FLORIDA -17.5 Auburn -21.01 0.559 17-20 L L U-
NEW MEXICO +3.5 Brigham Young +0.66 0.558 24-31 L W O
RUTGERS -18.5 Maryland -21.89 0.556 24-34 L L U-
PURDUE -21.5 Notre Dame -24.41 0.548 33-19 L W O
WISCONSIN -7.5 Michigan State -10.10 0.545 37-34 L W O
OREGON -6.5 California -9.04 0.545 24-31 L L U-
STANFORD +14.5 Arizona State +12.08 0.540 3-41 L W O
GEORGIA -15.0 Mississippi -17.28 0.538 45-17 W W
South Carolina -13.5 MISSISSIPPI STATE -11.23 0.538 38-21 L W O
Florida State -2.0 ALABAMA -0.22 0.537 21-14 L W O
TEXAS -14.5 Kansas State -16.45 0.533 21-41 L L U-
Ohio -3.0 KENT -1.46 0.530 25-33 W L U+
VIRGINIA -6.0 Pittsburgh -7.35 0.524 44-14 W W
Toledo +1.5 WESTERN MICHIGAN +2.61 0.523 28-42 W W
Miami (Florida) -24.0 DUKE -22.61 0.523 24-14 W W
Tulsa -23.0 ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM -21.72 0.521 38-30 W W
Georgia Tech +3.0 CLEMSON +3.96 0.518 13- 3 L L U-
MINNESOTA +23.5 Ohio State +22.69 0.513 7-30 W W
Ball State -13.5 BUFFALO -12.72 0.513 49-14 L W O
MIAMI (OHIO) +1.5 Syracuse +0.87 0.513 17-14 W L U+
BOISE STATE -11.0 Southern Mississippi -11.41 0.507 38-16 W W
Central Florida -22.5 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE -22.47 0.500 37-19 W W
Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread
This week straight up: 39-15 (72.2%)
This week against the spread: 27-27 (50.0%)
Vegas Error: 12.7407
CR Error: 13.3962
Vegas Bias: -0.8704
CR Bias: 0.1318
Vegas Mean Square Error: 244.5926
CR Mean Square Error: 256.7066
Extended Analysis
-----------------
key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure
19 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
8 wins vs. spread due to upsets
6 losses vs. spread due to upsets
14 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
7 losses due to Comprank failure
CR success rate --> 27/54 = 50.0% Analysis: Average
CR failure rate --> 7/54 = 13.0% Analysis: Slightly Above Average
upset ratio ------> 14/54 = 25.9% Analysis: Above Average
