The upsets continue, however there is some semblance of a hierarchy beginning to form up. Overall for the week, it was fairly average for the season, as the unexpected upsets continue to throw my predictions out the window, but at least the system was positive against the spread. Anyway, on to the results.
Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl
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Texas Tech -13.5 COLORADO -0.35 0.770 26-31 W L U+
TOLEDO -3.5 Northern Illinois -16.67 0.747 70-21 W W
ARIZONA STATE -3.0 California -14.50 0.720 31-20 W W
Hawaii -27.0 NEW MEXICO STATE -14.43 0.709 50-13 L W CR
Marshall -8.5 RICE +1.25 0.695 34-21 L L CR
OREGON -3.0 Southern California -12.64 0.685 24-17 W W
MARYLAND +3.5 Clemson -4.82 0.656 17-30 L L CR
Washington State +6.5 UCLA +14.65 0.644 27- 7 L L U-
WASHINGTON -3.5 Arizona -11.05 0.642 41-48 L L U-
Texas A&M +2.5 KANSAS +9.43 0.636 11-19 W W
BOWLING GREEN -7.5 Ohio -15.19 0.634 27-38 L L U-
TULSA -14.0 Southern Methodist -21.37 0.624 29-23 L W O
Tennessee -3.0 SOUTH CAROLINA +3.39 0.622 27-24 T L
North Carolina State +3.0 VIRGINIA +9.28 0.620 29-24 L L U-
MICHIGAN -24.0 Minnesota -31.28 0.620 34-10 T W
FLORIDA ATLANTIC -6.5 Louisiana-Monroe -13.13 0.617 30-33 L L U-
WAKE FOREST -6.5 North Carolina -13.10 0.617 37-10 W W
Texas -21.0 NEBRASKA -14.18 0.613 28-25 W W
AUBURN -17.5 Mississippi -23.98 0.608 17- 3 L W O
New Mexico -6.0 AIR FORCE -0.97 0.603 34-31 W W
MISSOURI -28.5 Iowa State -33.60 0.584 42-28 L W O
Kansas State -25.0 BAYLOR -20.30 0.577 51-13 L W O
Virginia Tech -3.0 BOSTON COLLEGE +0.35 0.569 10-14 W W U+
Southern Mississippi -2.5 CENTRAL FLORIDA +0.83 0.568 17-34 W W U+
TULANE -1.0 Memphis -4.04 0.568 27-28 L L U-
Florida State -18.0 DUKE -13.92 0.568 25- 6 L W O
Arkansas -39.5 FLORIDA INT'L -35.37 0.567 58-10 L W O
NEVADA -16.5 Idaho -20.49 0.567 37-21 L W CR
Oregon State -13.5 STANFORD -9.65 0.565 23- 6 L W O
Louisville -11.0 PITTSBURGH -7.52 0.559 24-17 W W
Utah State +2.5 LOUISIANA TECH +5.21 0.553 21-31 W W
CONNECTICUT +5.0 South Florida +2.21 0.552 22-15 W L U+
Kent +2.5 CENTRAL MICHIGAN +5.10 0.551 31-41 W W
Colorado State +6.0 UTAH +8.71 0.548 3-27 W W
Iowa +3.0 MICHIGAN STATE +5.44 0.547 34-27 L L U-
Penn State +4.0 OHIO STATE +6.39 0.544 17-37 W W
EAST CAROLINA -14.5 Alabama-Birmingham -17.12 0.544 41- 6 W W
RUTGERS +7.0 West Virginia +4.57 0.543 3-31 L W O
Florida -9.0 GEORGIA -6.84 0.537 30-42 W L U+
Illinois -14.0 BALL STATE -11.90 0.535 28-17 W W
Purdue -13.0 NORTHWESTERN -10.98 0.534 35-17 L W O
Arkansas State +4.5 TROY STATE +6.27 0.532 0-27 W W
KENTUCKY -13.5 Mississippi State -15.14 0.528 14-31 L L U-
Fresno State +3.0 BOISE STATE +4.41 0.527 21-34 W W
EASTERN MICHIGAN +5.0 Western Michigan +3.72 0.523 19- 2 W L U+
WYOMING -12.0 Nevada-Las Vegas -13.24 0.521 29-24 L W O
Vanderbilt -13.5 MIAMI (OHIO) -12.43 0.518 24-13 W W
Buffalo -1.5 AKRON -0.64 0.518 26-10 L W O
North Texas +13.0 MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST +14.00 0.517 28-48 W W
TEXAS-EL PASO +3.5 Houston +2.68 0.515 31-34 W W
WISCONSIN -7.5 Indiana -7.75 0.504 33- 3 W W
Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread
This week straight up: 36-15 (70.6%)
This week against the spread: 26-23-2 (52.9%)
Vegas Error: 11.4804
CR Error: 12.4440
Vegas Bias: 1.2843
CR Bias: 1.0917
Vegas Mean Square Error: 213.7304
CR Mean Square Error: 227.8222
Extended Analysis
-----------------
key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure
21 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
6 wins vs. spread due to upsets
8 losses vs. spread due to upsets
11 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
5 losses due to Comprank failure
CR success rate --> 27/51 = 52.9% Analysis: Slightly Above Average
CR failure rate --> 5/51 = 9.8% Analysis: Slightly Below Average
upset ratio ------> 14/51 = 27.5% Analysis: High
