Another sub-par week against the spread for my system, and once again, the upsets are the culprits. It's almost getting to the point that simply betting the underdogs across the board is beginning to be a sane decision.
However, one bright spot did emerge from this week's games, which is that my system went 5-3 in picking upsets outright, which is significant both for the number of upsets it picked, as well as how many it got correct. What I'm beginning to wonder is if the system is beginning to figure out the chaos of this season. One things for sure -- there are no more preseason ratings in effect at this point, and that may have some play in how things shake out for the rest of the season.
Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl
========================================================================================
CONNECTICUT +3.5 Louisville -11.78 0.787 21-17 W W U+
EAST CAROLINA -5.5 North Carolina State -20.54 0.770 20-34 L L U-
Arizona -10.0 STANFORD +2.53 0.732 20-21 W W U+
KENTUCKY +7.0 Florida -5.20 0.713 37-45 L L CR
BAYLOR +25.0 Texas +13.89 0.684 10-31 W W
Oklahoma State -3.0 KANSAS STATE +5.94 0.671 41-39 W L
NOTRE DAME +18.5 Southern California +9.47 0.652 0-38 L W O
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM +13.0 Houston +4.64 0.647 10-49 L W O
Rutgers +2.5 SOUTH FLORIDA +9.98 0.647 30-27 L L U-
NEVADA-LAS VEGAS -2.5 Colorado State -9.36 0.634 23-48 L L U-
Kent -5.5 BOWLING GREEN +1.14 0.634 20-31 W W U+
RICE -1.5 Memphis -7.86 0.634 35-38 L L U-
TROY STATE -19.0 North Texas -26.81 0.630 45- 7 W W
Clemson -16.5 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -8.88 0.629 70-14 L W O
NEW MEXICO STATE -9.0 Idaho -16.36 0.627 45-31 W W
Maryland -4.5 VIRGINIA +1.34 0.616 17-18 W W U+
Pittsburgh +10.0 CINCINNATI +16.41 0.610 24-17 L L U-
Syracuse -3.5 BUFFALO +1.96 0.604 20-12 L L CR
Georgia Tech -23.5 ARMY -17.50 0.599 34-10 L W CR
OHIO STATE -17.0 Michigan State -22.84 0.598 24-17 L W O
MISSOURI -3.5 Texas Tech -8.59 0.596 41-10 W W
Central Florida -3.0 TULSA +1.91 0.594 44-23 L L CR
IOWA STATE +30.0 Oklahoma +24.36 0.592 7-17 W W
Texas Christian -3.5 UTAH +0.84 0.589 20-27 W W U+
Southern Methodist -6.5 TULANE -2.08 0.584 34-41 W L U+
Colorado +4.0 KANSAS +8.21 0.578 14-19 W W
West Virginia -24.5 MISSISSIPPI STATE -19.79 0.577 38-13 L W O
Nebraska -2.0 TEXAS A&M +1.85 0.574 14-36 W W U+
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST -2.0 Arkansas State -5.46 0.570 24- 7 W W
PURDUE -7.0 Iowa -10.93 0.569 31- 6 W W
FLORIDA STATE -6.0 Miami (Florida) -9.46 0.562 29-37 L L U-
ILLINOIS +3.0 Michigan +0.38 0.554 17-27 L W O
SOUTH CAROLINA -13.5 Vanderbilt -16.62 0.553 6-17 L L U-
Louisiana-Monroe -13.5 FLORIDA INT'L -10.37 0.553 28-14 L W CR
WISCONSIN -23.5 Northern Illinois -26.50 0.549 44- 3 W W
San Diego State +8.5 NEW MEXICO +11.34 0.549 17-20 L W O
Western Michigan +1.5 BALL STATE +3.82 0.549 23-27 W W
Louisiana-Lafayette +7.0 FLORIDA ATLANTIC +9.48 0.544 32-39 T W
LOUISIANA TECH +16.5 Boise State +14.20 0.538 31-45 W W
Utah State +7.0 NEVADA +8.92 0.534 28-31 L W O
UCLA +0.0 CALIFORNIA +1.45 0.532 30-21 L L CR
Alabama +0.0 TENNESSEE +1.17 0.526 41-17 L L CR
Air Force -2.5 WYOMING -1.21 0.526 20-12 L W O
Temple +5.5 MIAMI (OHIO) +6.84 0.524 24-17 L L U-
INDIANA +7.0 Penn State +5.80 0.521 31-36 W W
MISSISSIPPI +5.5 Arkansas +4.47 0.518 8-44 L W O
Washington +11.0 OREGON +11.88 0.515 34-55 W W
TOLEDO -1.0 Ohio -1.54 0.512 43-40 W W
NAVY +3.0 Wake Forest +2.37 0.512 24-44 L W O
Marshall +3.5 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI +3.99 0.509 24-33 W W
LOUISIANA STATE -10.5 Auburn -10.91 0.507 30-24 L W O
Eastern Michigan +9.5 NORTHWESTERN +9.61 0.502 14-26 W W
FRESNO STATE -12.5 San Jose State -12.58 0.501 30- 0 W W
Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread
This week straight up: 38-15 (71.7%)
This week against the spread: 25-27-1 (48.1%)
Vegas Error: 11.5660
CR Error: 12.9317
Vegas Bias: 0.0943
CR Bias: 0.6406
Vegas Mean Square Error: 221.5094
CR Mean Square Error: 278.2680
Extended Analysis
-----------------
key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure
18.5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
7 wins vs. spread due to upsets
8 losses vs. spread due to upsets
12 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
7.5 losses due to Comprank failure
CR success rate --> 25.5/53 = 48.1% Analysis: Slightly Below Average
CR failure rate --> 7.5/53 = 14.2% Analysis: Above Average
upset ratio ------> 15/53 = 28.3% Analysis: High
