Got bludgeoned this weekend. Way too many upsets, and none in my favor. The odd thing about this past weekend is that there was only one team this weekend that outplayed what my system saw as their potential, which was Cleveland and the Browns had a decent chance to win it nonetheless.
So while it's very difficult to predict upsets (and then deal with the one you don't predict), at least it seems like there's some semblance of order beginning to arise this season.
Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl
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NEW ORLEANS -10.0 St. Louis -24.45 0.748 29-37 L L U-
Arizona -2.0 DETROIT +8.92 0.720 31-21 L L CR
GREEN BAY -5.0 Minnesota -13.30 0.650 34- 0 W W
CAROLINA -3.5 Atlanta -9.55 0.614 13-20 L L U-
WASHINGTON -2.5 Philadelphia -8.15 0.611 25-33 L L U-
San Diego +3.5 INDIANAPOLIS +8.71 0.598 23-21 L L U-
KANSAS CITY -3.0 Denver -7.06 0.578 11-27 L L U-
SEATTLE -9.5 San Francisco -13.33 0.566 24- 0 W W
TENNESSEE -5.0 Jacksonville -7.91 0.553 13-28 L L U-
PITTSBURGH -10.0 Cleveland -12.96 0.551 31-28 L W O
BALTIMORE -3.0 Cincinnati -4.92 0.537 7-21 L L U-
NY Giants +2.0 DALLAS +3.04 0.521 20-31 W W
Miami +2.5 BUFFALO +3.39 0.517 10-13 W W
Oakland +3.5 CHICAGO +3.78 0.505 6-17 W W
Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread
This week straight up: 6-8 (42.9%)
This week against the spread: 5-9 (35.7%)
Vegas Error: 12.5714
CR Error: 15.4682
Vegas Bias: 4.4286
CR Bias: 6.6992
Vegas Mean Square Error: 209.0357
CR Mean Square Error: 302.2439
Extended Analysis
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key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure
5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
0 wins vs. spread due to upsets
7 losses vs. spread due to upsets
1 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
1 losses due to Comprank failure
CR success rate --> 5/14 = 35.7% Analysis: Extremely Low
CR failure rate --> 1/14 = 7.1% Analysis: Below Average
upset ratio ------> 7/14 = 50.0% Analysis: Extremely High
