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NFL Prediction Results for 11/4/07 PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 06 November 2007
Wow!  What a week!  Despite getting the prediction on the Indy-New England game wrong, the system really cleaned house otherwise, going 10-4 straight up and a whopping 12-2 against the spread!  That's easily the best it's done in quite some time, and remains to be seen if it's a sign of things to come.
 
Home                     Line  Away                   CR Line   Conf   Score ATS Str Anl
========================================================================================
INDIANAPOLIS             +5.5  New England              -8.48   0.751  20-24  W   L
BUFFALO                  +1.0  Cincinnati               -8.27   0.707  33-21  W   W   U+
TAMPA BAY                -3.5  Arizona                 -12.92   0.677  17-10  W   W
New Orleans              -3.5  JACKSONVILLE             +5.83   0.675  41-24  L   L   CR
TENNESSEE                -4.0  Carolina                -11.67   0.642  20- 7  W   W
DETROIT                  -3.0  Denver                   -9.31   0.621  44- 7  W   W
Kansas City              -2.0  GREEN BAY                +3.31   0.607  22-33  W   W   U+
CLEVELAND                -1.0  Seattle                  -4.59   0.580  33-30  W   W
NY Jets                  +3.5  WASHINGTON               +7.54   0.576  20-23  L   W   CR
ATLANTA                  -3.0  San Francisco            -6.91   0.575  20-16  W   W
PITTSBURGH               -9.0  Baltimore               -13.23   0.573  38- 7  W   W
Oakland                  -3.0  HOUSTON                  -0.07   0.560  17-24  W   L   U+
MINNESOTA                +7.0  San Diego                +5.63   0.524  35-17  W   L   U+
Philadelphia             +3.0  DALLAS                   +4.05   0.520  17-38  W   W

Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread

This week straight up:          10-4            (71.4%)
This week against the spread:   12-2            (85.7%)

Vegas Error:               11.8571
CR Error:                  11.1517
Vegas Bias:                -6.0000
CR Bias:                   -3.3507
Vegas Mean Square Error:  236.4286
CR Mean Square Error:     199.7249

Extended Analysis
-----------------
key:    U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
        U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
        O  = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
        CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure

8 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
4 wins vs. spread due to upsets
0 losses vs. spread due to upsets
0 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
2 losses due to Comprank failure

CR success rate --> 12/14 = 85.7%       Analysis:       Extremely High
CR failure rate -->  2/14 = 14.3%       Analysis:       Above Average
upset ratio ------>  4/14 = 28.6%       Analysis:       High

 
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