| NFL Prediction Results for 9/21/08 |
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| Tuesday, 23 September 2008 | |
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Wow. What a strange week for the NFL. Not as many upsets as usual, but still quite unusual overall. There could easily have been a couple more than the 3 upsets that did occur, as Buffalo and the NY Giants had to go the distance (and then some) to beat Oakland and Cincy, respectively. Overall, the system did fairly well in picking the winners, but got butchered against the spread. This is due to not picking any of the upsets (which is quite unusual for my system), predicting wrong on two games, but by and large it was due to the 5 games where one or both teams really over- or under-performed. I mean come on -- G-men squeaking by the Bengals? Really? For what it's worth, the Vegas spread was pretty lousy too, so no one did very well this week in predicting the games.
Hopefully next week brings better luck against the spread. Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl ======================================================================================== NY GIANTS -13.5 Cincinnati -22.96 0.660 26-23 L W O TENNESSEE -4.5 Houston -11.32 0.625 31-12 W W CHICAGO -3.0 Tampa Bay -8.87 0.612 24-27 L L U- Minnesota -3.5 CAROLINA +2.14 0.606 20-10 L L CR NEW ENGLAND -12.5 Miami -18.11 0.595 13-38 L L U- DENVER -5.5 New Orleans -10.35 0.587 34-32 L W CR BUFFALO -9.0 Oakland -13.97 0.586 24-23 L W O WASHINGTON -3.0 Arizona -6.89 0.575 24-17 W W SAN DIEGO -9.0 NY Jets -12.54 0.561 48-29 W W PHILADELPHIA -3.0 Pittsburgh -5.50 0.548 15- 6 W W Seattle -9.5 ST. LOUIS -7.70 0.531 37-13 L W O Green Bay +3.0 DALLAS +4.05 0.520 16-27 W W Baltimore -1.5 CLEVELAND -0.60 0.518 28-10 L W O SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 Detroit -4.31 0.515 31-13 W W Atlanta -4.5 KANSAS CITY -3.96 0.510 38-14 L W O INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 Jacksonville -5.82 0.506 21-23 L L U-
This week straight up: 12-4 (75.0%) This week against the spread: 6-10 (37.5%)
CR Error: 13.0224 Vegas Bias: -1.5625 CR Bias: 0.8575 Vegas Mean Square Error: 201.6562 CR Mean Square Error: 260.1950 Extended Analysis ----------------- key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure 6 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success 0 wins vs. spread due to upsets 3 losses vs. spread due to upsets 5 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents 2 losses due to Comprank failure
CR failure rate --> 2/16 = 12.5% Analysis: Slightly Above Average upset ratio ------> 3/16 = 18.8% Analysis: Average |
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