Once again, the system did not do very well, mostly due to a combination of upsets and system error. It's discouraging, but not unexpected at this time of the season while the ratings are in flux from trying to change according to how each team is playing. The real unexpected behavior was the week 1 and 2 success -- that's way out of the ordinary.
Hopefully things are going to settle out a bit more now, but remember, sometimes this is a crapshoot.
Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl
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Kansas City +9.0 DENVER +21.81 0.721 33-19 L L U-
TENNESSEE -3.0 Minnesota -9.36 0.622 30-17 W W
NY Jets -1.5 ARIZONA +3.13 0.597 56-35 L L CR
OAKLAND +7.5 San Diego +2.46 0.594 18-28 L W CR
St. Louis +8.0 BUFFALO +11.40 0.559 14-31 W W
Chicago +3.0 PHILADELPHIA +5.62 0.550 24-20 L L U-
JACKSONVILLE -7.5 Houston -9.80 0.540 30-27 L W O
Tampa Bay -1.0 GREEN BAY +0.49 0.531 30-21 L L CR
CINCINNATI -3.5 Cleveland -4.51 0.519 12-20 L L U-
DALLAS -11.0 Washington -11.99 0.517 24-26 L L U-
CAROLINA -7.0 Atlanta -7.64 0.511 24- 9 W W
NEW ORLEANS -6.0 San Francisco -6.43 0.508 31-17 W W
Pittsburgh -7.0 BALTIMORE -6.70 0.505 23-20 W W
Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread
This week straight up: 7-6 (53.8%)
This week against the spread: 5-8 (38.5%)
Vegas Error: 9.8462
CR Error: 11.3663
Vegas Bias: -3.0000
CR Bias: -3.6535
Vegas Mean Square Error: 128.8462
CR Mean Square Error: 205.5611
Extended Analysis
-----------------
key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure
5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
0 wins vs. spread due to upsets
4 losses vs. spread due to upsets
1 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
3 losses due to Comprank failure
CR success rate --> 5/13 = 38.5% Analysis: Extremely Low
CR failure rate --> 3/13 = 23.1% Analysis: Extremely High
upset ratio ------> 4/13 = 30.8% Analysis: Extremely High
