Menu Content/Inhalt
Home
NFL Prediction Results for Week 5 PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 07 October 2008
The system had a better week this week than in the past couple, buoyed by picking a couple upsets outright with the Skins over Philly and Pittsburgh over the Jags.  Guess that whole bounce-back/hangover idea wasn't too valid after all.
 
Home                     Line  Away                   CR Line   Conf   Score ATS Str Anl
========================================================================================
NY GIANTS                -7.0  Seattle                 -16.95   0.675  44- 6  W   W
Philadelphia             -6.5  WASHINGTON               +2.24   0.664  17-23  W   W   U+
DALLAS                  -16.0  Cincinnati              -24.67   0.645  31-22  L   W   CR
Jacksonville             -5.0  PITTSBURGH               +1.01   0.623  21-26  W   W   U+
Arizona                  -2.0  BUFFALO                  +3.18   0.605  41-17  L   L   CR
NEW ORLEANS              -3.0  Minnesota                -7.50   0.586  27-30  L   L   U-
Denver                   -3.0  TAMPA BAY                +1.06   0.583  16-13  T   L
GREEN BAY                -3.5  Atlanta                  -7.62   0.577  24-27  L   L   U-
CAROLINA                 -9.5  Kansas City             -13.26   0.565  34- 0  W   W
Detroit                  +3.5  CHICAGO                  +6.76   0.561   7-34  W   W
MIAMI                    +6.5  San Diego                +3.47   0.555  17-10  W   L   U+
San Francisco            +3.0  NEW ENGLAND              +4.93   0.537  21-30  W   W
Baltimore                +2.5  TENNESSEE                +4.19   0.533  10-13  W   W
HOUSTON                  +3.0  Indianapolis             +1.52   0.529  27-31  L   W   CR

Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread

This week straight up:           9-5            (64.3%)
This week against the spread:    8-5 -1         (60.7%)

Vegas Error:               11.7143
CR Error:                  11.1444
Vegas Bias:                -1.2857
CR Bias:                   -0.9547
Vegas Mean Square Error:  228.6071
CR Mean Square Error:     190.7712

Extended Analysis
-----------------
key:    U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
        U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
        O  = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
        CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure

5.5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
3 wins vs. spread due to upsets
2 losses vs. spread due to upsets
0 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
3.5 losses due to Comprank failure

CR success rate --> 8.5/14 = 60.7%       Analysis:       High
CR failure rate --> 3.5/14 = 25.0%       Analysis:       Extremely High
upset ratio ------>   5/14 = 35.7%       Analysis:       Extremely High

 
< Prev   Next >