| NFL Predictions for 9/16/07 |
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| Saturday, 15 September 2007 | |
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Wow....upset city, Pro-style! How about that basketball-on-grass game in Cleveland? The Pats lay a major league whooping on the Bolts and it still doesn't change the ratings. Pittsbugh is looking tough -- back to 2005 form. And here's something new -- the NFC is finally catching up. Detroit, San Francisco, and Washington are all 2-0 and rising fast. On the flip side, the AFC, while still dominant at the top, is losing steam down below. The Jets, Buffalo, and KC are all going down in a hurry -- watch out below. Also, what the heck is wrong with the Saints? Weren't they in the NFC championship game this past January? For my part, the predictions did pretty well, coming in against the spread with a whopping 10-5-1 record, or 65.6% win ratio. That's big! Hope it continues. Home Line Away CR Line Conf Score ATS Str Anl ======================================================================================== DENVER -10.0 Oakland -19.26 0.659 23-20 L W CR TENNESSEE +7.0 Indianapolis +1.43 0.610 20-22 W W NEW ENGLAND -3.5 San Diego -8.86 0.601 38-14 W W Detroit -3.0 MINNESOTA +1.97 0.595 20-17 T L MIAMI +4.0 Dallas -0.40 0.590 20-37 L L CR Carolina -6.5 HOUSTON -2.44 0.576 21-34 W L U+ NY Giants -1.5 GREEN BAY +1.67 0.567 13-35 W W U+ Philadelphia -7.0 WASHINGTON -3.77 0.558 12-20 W L U+ Baltimore -10.0 NY JETS -7.67 0.540 20-13 W W JACKSONVILLE -10.0 Atlanta -12.04 0.535 13- 7 L W O Chicago -12.0 KANSAS CITY -10.18 0.531 20-10 W W St. Louis -3.0 SAN FRANCISCO -1.59 0.527 16-17 W L U+ ARIZONA +3.0 Seattle +1.68 0.525 23-20 W L U+ CLEVELAND +7.0 Cincinnati +6.01 0.517 51-45 W L U+ Tampa Bay +3.5 NEW ORLEANS +4.22 0.514 31-14 L L U- Pittsburgh -9.5 BUFFALO -9.13 0.506 26- 3 L W O
This week straight up: 8-8 (50.0%) This week against the spread: 10-5 -1 (65.6%)
CR Error: 10.1977 Vegas Bias: 0.7812 CR Bias: 1.2103 Vegas Mean Square Error: 167.0781 CR Mean Square Error: 154.0483 Extended Analysis ----------------- key: U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread O = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure 4.5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success 6 wins vs. spread due to upsets 1 losses vs. spread due to upsets 2 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents 2.5 losses due to Comprank failure
CR failure rate --> 2.5/16 = 15.6% Analysis: Above Average upset ratio ------> 7/16 = 43.8% Analysis: Extremely High |
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| Last Updated ( Wednesday, 19 September 2007 ) |
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