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NFL Predictions for 9/9/07 PDF Print E-mail
Sunday, 09 September 2007
Welcome to the 2007 NFL season.  Here's the first set of predictions for Week 1 of the season.
 
 
Home                     Line  Away                   CR Line   Conf   Score ATS Str Anl
========================================================================================
BUFFALO                  +3.0  Denver                   -5.19   0.657  14-15  W   L
NY JETS                  +6.5  New England              -0.02   0.634  14-38  L   L   CR
GREEN BAY                +3.0  Philadelphia             -2.97   0.609  16-13  W   W   U+
Cincinnati               -3.0  BALTIMORE                +1.04   0.582  27-20  L   L   CR
CLEVELAND                +5.0  Pittsburgh               +1.14   0.578   7-34  L   W   O
INDIANAPOLIS             -6.0  New Orleans             -10.02   0.571  41-10  W   W
Jacksonville             -6.5  TENNESSEE                -3.44   0.555  10-13  W   L   U+
Washington               -3.0  MIAMI                    -0.34   0.555  16-13  T   W
ST. LOUIS                -1.0  Carolina                 -3.45   0.555  13-27  L   L   U-
SAN FRANCISCO            -3.0  Arizona                  -5.73   0.552  20-17  T   W
SEATTLE                  -6.0  Tampa Bay                -8.63   0.547  20- 6  W   W
Dallas                   -6.0  NY GIANTS                -4.80   0.521  45-35  L   W   O
MINNESOTA                -3.0  Atlanta                  -4.03   0.520  24- 3  W   W
San Diego                -6.5  CHICAGO                  -5.49   0.518  14- 3  L   W   O
Houston                  -3.0  KANSAS CITY              -2.46   0.510  20- 3  L   W   O
OAKLAND                  -2.5  Detroit                  -2.73   0.505  21-36  L   L   U-

Teams listed in CAPS are favored against the spread

This week straight up:          10-6            (62.5%)
This week against the spread:    6-8 -2         (43.8%)

Vegas Error:               10.4375
CR Error:                  11.2330
Vegas Bias:                -0.2500
CR Bias:                    1.3198
Vegas Mean Square Error:  169.5625
CR Mean Square Error:     190.5905

Extended Analysis
-----------------
key:    U+ = upset vs. spread that resulted in win vs. spread
        U- = upset vs. spread that resulted in loss vs. spread
        O  = loss vs. spread due to at least one team overplaying or underplaying
        CR = loss vs. spread due to Comprank failure

5 wins vs. spread due to Comprank success
2 wins vs. spread due to upsets
2 losses vs. spread due to upsets
4 losses vs. spread due to teams over/under playing their opponents
3 losses due to Comprank failure

CR success rate -->  7/16 = 43.8%       Analysis:       Below Average
CR failure rate -->  3/16 = 18.8%       Analysis:       Extremely High
upset ratio ------>  4/16 = 25.0%       Analysis:       Above Average

Last Updated ( Saturday, 15 September 2007 )
 
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